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Defending Keyes
The name of a great Englishman, John Maynard Keyes, is being trashed by that jug eared steak of piss and racist hater of all things British Barack Obama in attempts to give the failing Obama administration's loonytoons economics a veneer of sanity. Keynes recommended governments should use publc spending to sustain their economy during periods of recession. He did not say, as Obama's supporters claim he did, that nations already way past the point of bankruptcy should continue with reckless poublic spending projects.

Defending Keynes
by John De Roe
2010-06-29
CREATIVE COMMONS: Attribute, non commercial, no derivs.
KEYWORDS: gordon brown, labour, prime minister, downing street, movie, television, satire, humour, humor

29 June 2010
Defending Keynes
by John De Roe

Having received several snottograms via e-mail from fanatical suuporters of the wretchedly incompetent Barak Hussein Obama in response to one of my previous items I would like to make it clear I am not a right wing nut job, far from spending all my time listening to Rush Limbaugh I had never heard of the man, an American radio chat show host I believe, and as to the claim that I know nothing of economics because "anybody who understands economics would know Obama's borrow and spend policy is the only way out of recession," I will now refute that piece of Obama worship by proving that a person's kin colour does not determine their economic nous and since taking office everything the Obama administration have done on economic policy was ideologically driven and was in fact the opposite of what needed doing.

Don't you love the enthusiasm of religious zealots. What concerns me is I thought it was customary to wait until someone had died and risen again before proclaiming his divinity.

As for these people's dismissing my 30 years of managerial experience in banking and as "knowing nothing about economics" I leave you to make up your own minds. Today I shall garner opinions from other experts to prove my case that deficit reduction is the only way to save the develped nations' economy from collapse.

We start with Vince Calble's 2010 Denning Ledcture.
Vince Cable is an economist who worked in the oil and finance industries before changing career and becoming a Liberal Democrat member of the UK Parliament in 1997. He is now Secretary for Business, Innoation and Skills in the coalition government.

Click Here to read the full text of Vince Cable's Denning Lecture

The theme I set for myself today is an important one - arguably the most important as far as the immediate prospects for the UK economy is concerned. Can we reduce the deficit while still investing in helping the economy grow?

Answering that question means being clear about where growth comes from. And clear about the role of government in helping create it.

The short answer is that it is not only possible to do both, but that it is necessary to do both. Recovery cannot be assured when the government is running such an unsustainable budget deficit. But without growth it is difficult to see how the deficit can be managed down since growth generates tax revenue and gets people off the dole.

So what I want to do today is to set out why this balance matters so much, and to say something about how we intend to strike it. It will be the inevitable balancing act at the centre of the emergency budget in two weeks time, and indeed of every budget that this coalition produces, as both the Chancellor and the Prime Minister have made clear.

It is also a challenge that is central to the whole mandate of my department, the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills, which has responsibility for business, regulatory reform, trade, further and higher education and science. A remit that, as I said in my first speech as Secretary of State last week, makes it a de facto ministry for growth.

I want to challenge the myth today that there is a not a constructive and progressive way to tackle the deficit. Indeed, I want to argue that this is precisely what a progressive government should be doing. Along the way I will have something to say about the use - and abuse - of Keynesian economics.

I think it is right to approach this task of cutting both deficit and debt with a degree of radicalism. It is a mistake to believe that a positive and productive role for the state has to involve the last ditch defence of the current level and patterns of public spending. My argument today is that have an important chance to rethink some of what government does from scratch.

But we have also rejected the idea that all we need for private sector growth is to cut back the public sector.

Fixing the imbalances in the economy will take time. Between manufacturing and finance. Between North and South. Between dependence on public sector jobs and new private enterprise.

Regions long dependent on public sector employment will not become silicon valleys of entrepreneurialism over night. Businesses are still reeling from recession and are reluctant to invest or unable to raise finance.

Households are nervously rebuilding their balance sheets. We hope that exports will lift the economy; but demand in some major markets, notably the Eurozone, is weak.

For all these reasons private sector demand will, only with difficulty, fill the space created by cuts in public sector demand.

And no less importantly, some of what gives us the capacity to grow the economy actually comes from what we spend collectively on things like education, infrastructure and science. To undermine these would be like a farmer consuming next years' seed corn.This is a point I want to come back to at some length.

For all these reasons, we are rightly committed to advancing with care into a still uncertain economic future.

[.] The last government sometimes tried to present its record borrowing as an act of Keynesian heroism. In reality it was a short term expedient.

And in fact a substantial part of the deficit we have inherited was not a result of temporary stimulus or automatic stabilizers like unemployment assistance. It is structural. This means that even with returning growth, there would still be a fiscal hole to fill.

It is a long time since I studied and taught Keynes' General Theory - the economists' equivalent to the Bible - but I remember enough to feel extreme annoyance when Keynes's name is used to justify high levels of public spending and persistent deficit financing.

Keynes was, in fact, an economic and political liberal. And he was addressing some specific problems in the inter war period which could have presented themselves in the current crises but haven't, at least yet. The key point was the use of budget deficits when monetary policy fails to stop a downward deflationary spiral.

To be sure, Keynes would have approved of the highly expansionary monetary policy including quantitative easing that the UK has followed in this crisis so far. Helped by a big stimulus from devaluation.

And there is one other sense in which the so-called Keynesian critique of policy has force. Britain is part of a wider global economy. We have only 2% of global GDP and our exports in particular depend on developments elsewhere. If all major countries simultaneously embark on fiscal consolidation the cumulative effect on global demand is likely to be negative, and negative for Britain.

So there remains an obligation on countries with a stronger fiscal position to offset contraction elsewhere: Germany is the obvious case in Europe. But with our vulnerable fiscal position we are not in a strong position to preach from the bully pulpit.

However, having said that, Keynes would not have recognized much of what is now being called the Keynesian response to the recent and current crisis. In particular the structural element in the UK deficit which has nothing to do with Keynesian demand management and has to be dealt with.

What I mean by structural is this: the current level of public spending - and all the sense of entitlement built around it - is based on the revenues from an economy artificially boosted by a debt fuelled spending boom, an inflated housing market and a bloated banking sector. The position is unreal and unsustainable.

In the private sector the adjustment that deflated these bubbles was swift and brutal. The rapid contraction of retail - including the sudden disappearance of long-established names like Woolworths. The collapse of building many contractors.

But the public sector carried on growing. For a while, it could afford to. And in part that was based on an economic calculation that the public sector had to support the economy temporarily. Which it did.

But this could never last forever, and now the right thing is for it to plan an orderly return to solvency, rather than run the risk of a "Woolworths moment" in the public finances.

( In fact at the Totonto G20 Summit (June 2010) we saw Barack Obama actually preaching from the bully pulpit Cable refers to when as leader of the world's biggest debtor and the President who presides over a loonytoons economic policy of unprecedented profligacy in demanding that nations fortunate enough to have run a surplus be willing to bail our his clueless, bankrupt administration. Naturally the surplus holding nations told him exactly where to go... ) ............................ There is a simple, common-sense argument. Having a structural deficit is a little like using an overdraft to run expensive cars and dining out several times a week. And the overdraft has to be serviced. The public sector cannot be run in this basis. Either we need to earn more, or we change our spending levels and patterns.

We also have to recognise something that is generally true about the public sector. It has a tendency to grow through accretion rather than by design. A quango tacked on here. A program extended there.

It is a sobering fact that no government in the last thirty years has ever left behind it a state smaller as a proportion of GDP than it inherited, even if it has cut public spending in real terms for short periods.

It is not in any way to devalue the public sector or those who work in it to say that this is not a rational or wise way to run our country. We now have a window of opportunity for a genuine public debate about what government does - and just as importantly how it does it. We should not waste it.

This is exactly what I have asked my officials to do at the Department of Business. You can call it zero-based budgeting. So we don't just try to find savings by slicing away at existing structures.

And certainly not by simply cutting services at the point of delivery like reducing the quality of further and university education or our capacity for scientific research.

Instead, we ask: if we were designing this system from scratch, how would we do it? As a small step in this direction I have already identified more than 800million in savings at the Department of Business. I have set out plans to reduce the number of BIS quangos by a third over this parliament.

This is the same approach that Canada took in the 1990s, successfully turning a fiscal basket case into an economy that weathered the financial storm better than any other developed nation. And it didn't descend into anarchy or sacrifice its strong social model.

It means rejecting an ideological attitude to cutting back the state for a more pragmatic argument about what we want government to do and how.

It means asking if the private or voluntary sector could not do things as well. It means insisting that we don't defend the role of government by defending the size of government.

Of course at a human level we have to acknowledge that cutting public spending is going to mean people losing jobs in both private and public sector.

(Note here Cable highlights the faux Keynesianism (deficit spending) of the Labour Government as against the fiscal responsibility recommended by Keynes himself...) George Monbiot: Keynes Did Propose The International Monetary Fund. Read all Keynes Did Propose The International Monetary Fund

(George Monbiot is a and writer on envonmental and economic matters, he is educated to Professorial leval in political science, environmental science and philosophy. George has taken leading roles in many environmental and political protest groups)

One of the reasons for financial crises is the imbalance of trade between nations. Countries accumulate debt partly as a result of sustaining a trade deficit. They can easily become trapped in a vicious spiral: the bigger their debt, the harder it is to generate a trade surplus. International debt wrecks people's development, trashes the environment and threatens the global system with periodic crises.

As Keynes recognised, there is not much the debtor nations can do. Only the countries that maintain a trade surplus have real agency, so it is they who must be obliged to change their policies. His solution was an ingenious system for persuading the creditor nations to spend their surplus money back into the economies of the debtor nations.

He proposed a global bank, which he called the International Clearing Union. The bank would issue its own currency - the bancor - which was exchangeable with national currencies at fixed rates of exchange. The bancor would become the unit of account between nations, which means it would be used to measure a country's trade deficit or trade surplus.

Every country would have an overdraft facility in its bancor account at the International Clearing Union, equivalent to half the average value of its trade over a five-year period. To make the system work, the members of the union would need a powerful incentive to clear their bancor accounts by the end of the year: to end up with neither a trade deficit nor a trade surplus. But what would the incentive be?

Waiting For The J Curve - Why the Obama Plan Will Not Work Read full article Why The Obama Will Not Work

Experience shows the US trade deficit is a miracle of unmanageability, growing like Topsy, whatever happens to the USD's world value. The 1985 Plaza accord, a quite-heroic devaluation of around 40%, was soon explained away as 'not working' because of the J-curve. That is US exports increased in volume, but not in value. Imports, even if falling in volume, rose in unit price. During slump, which was not the situation in 1985, we could or might imagine that imports would fall so much in volume, that a hefty USD devaluation would beat the J-curve, and sharply trim the gargantuan trade deficit. Obama may shortly decide he has to take that bet.

The 70% fall in oil prices since their peak in midyear 2008 is certainly bringing down 'constant structure' US trade deficit numbers, but during recession or slump the economic structure changes. Any chance of US high-value, high-tech exports rapidly increasing is cancelled by the recession, leaving the agro-commodities, minerals, metals and other recession-hit goods, whose unit price has spiraled down over 12 months, to take the strain. In simpler terms, these are products with relatively inelastic global demand, unlike high-price goods and services. The problem is these basic exports are oil price-indexed, applying their own J-curve wipeout to any hopes for a quick rise in export revenues for the USA.

Another really simple credibility problem for engineering a fall in the US trade deficit is its sheer size. If the US exported all its manufacturing output, consuming none of it at home, this would not cover the present trade deficit ! As the Obama team already knows well, US monthly trade deficits are showing little if any 'oil benefit', exactly like trade deficits of nearly every other OECD country " even whole regions like the European Union 27, whose global trade deficit goes on rising.

The reasons are simple, but do not make good reading. Decades of delocalization and de-industrialization has stacked up unbeatable competition in almost any industrial activity, and increasingly in services from China, and quite soon Brazil, India and other big countries. Continued or increasing dependence on imported oil and other raw materials for the throughput, one-trip consumer society, even its 'postindustrial' culture crisis and desires for a green-clean future add to the Obama wisdom that the worst is still to come. Shrinking the world value of the dollar will do little to change these harsh real world facts and would surely raise inflation.

There we have a comprehensive case for reducing sovereign deficits as a matter of urgency. If our nations do not learn to live within their means it willonly be ma matter of time before the loan sharks of the International financial system move in as they have in Greece, Ukraine and Iceland and as they are now doing in Ireland, Spain, Portugal and Hungary to my knowledge.

Revised 28 November 2010In the light of events during the ask two weeks in which we have seen the failure of Ireland's with the Greek economy already lying in ruins and as the slow motion trainwreck that is America's financial meltdown casts a dark shadow over everything surely the Obama worshippers can see now the man is utterly incompetent, the race hustlers with which he has surrounded himself are no better and he must be removed frrom office before the situation becomes irrversible.

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US Democratic Party Orders Google To Spread Globalist Propaganda
The U.S. House of Representatives Select Committee on the Climate Crisis has demanded, in a letter to Google CEO Sudar Pichai that the Internet Search giant demonetize climate skeptics, and provide 'education' to millions of people who have been exposed to “dangerous misinformation”. Key actions demanded of Google by The Democrats are:

Time is NOT real: Physicists show EVERYTHING happens at the same time

The concept of time is simply an illusion made up of human memories, everything that has ever been and ever will be is happening RIGHT NOW. That is the theory according to a group of esteemed physicists who aim to solve one of the universe’s mysteries.
Most people do not even consider the concept of time but there is nothing in the laws of physics to state that it should move in the forward direction that we know. The laws of physics are symmetric ultimately meaning that time could have easily moved in a backward direction as it does forward. Indeed some adherents to the ‘big crunch’ theory say time WILL run backwards when the universe stops expanding and starts contracting back in on itself.

The BBC is panicking at the public’s rejection of its arrogant Left-liberal worldview
This is nearly over – this weird disconnect between what most of us understand as reality and the world as seen through the eyes of an all pervasive Authority that was apparently appointed (although we never knew by whom) to establish the limits of public discourse. The crisis of confidence at the BBC – and make no mistake, it is a full blown, all alarm bells ringing, catastrophic crisis ...

The grooming gang cover-up is Britain’s real racism scandal

Forget pathetic 'Princess Pushy' Megan Markle petulantly playing the race card when she found life in the goldfish bowl occupied by Britain's Royal Family was not to her liking, the grooming gang cover up is Britain's racist scandal - and it is far worse than the trivialities that get American libtards screaming about "White Privilege ..."

John McCain’s Widow Comments on Jeffrey Epstein’s Sex Trafficking ChargesJohn McCain’s Widow Comments on Jeffrey Epstein’s Sex Trafficking Charges


Speaking at a human trafficking event in Florida, McCain revealed that her family was quite familiar with Epstein’s wrongdoings as one girl from her daughter’s high school was actually among the financier’s underage victims, then suddenly acknowledging that she “knew” about his crimes.
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French Intellectual Jailed for Calling Mass Immigration an “Invasion”
French intellectual Renaud Camus (above) has been conditionally sentenced to 2 months imprisonment for arguing that mass immigration in Europe represents an “invasion.” Summit.news reports: The writer, who is the author of Le Grand Remplacement (The Great Replacement), was charged with “public incitement to hate or violence on the basis of origin, ethnicity, nationality, race or religion.”

“Hard” Of Hearing? PornHub Being Sued By Deaf Man For Lack Of Subtitles
We read today that sex supermaket site PornHub is being sued by Yaroslav Suris, who has filed a lawsuit claiming that its lack of PornHub’s lack of subtitles for the hard of hearing is discriminatory. Suris’ bone of contention is that the website violates his rights under the Americans With Disabilities Act, according to showbiz gossip site TMZ, which broke the story ...

Quitaly Back On As Salvini Prepares To Take On The EU
While the bureaucraps of Brussels were still congratuating themselves on forcing Matteo Salvini’s Lega party out of Italy’s governernment, mainstream media barely bothered to cover the news that Lega won the state elections in Umbria towards the end of October 2019. Thus the story that should have had Europhiles like Emmanuel Macron and Guy Verhofshit crapping themselves was barely noticed.

Police Failed To Act Against Muslim Grooming Gang Due To Fears Over "Community Tensions" A new report based on the evidence of former Grester Manchester Police Detective Constable Maggie Oliver acknowledges that the force failed to stop dozens of girls being groomed and sexually exploited by a network of Pakistani men despite being fully aware of what was happening due to fears over creating “community tensions.” The report notes that the instruction to avoid prosecuting came "right from the top ..."

Asian grooming gang given free pass to rape; police officers told ‘find other ethnicities’ to investigate – detective.
A report published today, authored by child protection specialist Malcolm Newsam CBE and former senior police officer Gary Ridgway, comes following the reopening of an investigation into the death of 15-year-old Victoria Agoglia, who – after years of abuse and days after she was injected with heroin by a 50-year-old man – died in hospital of an overdose in 2003.

Greta Thunberg Slams Australia for Coal Industry, Expands List of Climate Demands
Little Greta Thunberg, who was elected by nobody apparently now speaks for us all on matters relating to climate change. The Swedish climate change hustler who is making a fortune for her handlers from donations to her campaign, again castigated Australia for continuing to mine and export coal despite her previous complaints, adding a call for an end worldwide to the actibity to her list of climate demands to be delivered at the upcoming World Economic Forum in Davos ...

Macron Digs In Against The General Strike, But Could It Finish Him?
As the French braces itself for the latest wave of protests and strikes across the country, as attitudes harden against President Emmanuel Macron's pension and retirement system reforms. Karel Vereycken, vice-president of France's Solidarity and Progress Party, has given his version what's behind the recent wave of strikes and why Macron's efforts to calm the situation down are backfiring.