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The Euro Bond Casino: Vegas On The Med by Ian R Thorpe.
The Daily Stirer has warned of the collapse of the Eurozone and the death of the single currency before. It was not a hard call to make, tying traditionally weak economies to a strong one like Germany's and thus blocking off the traditional route to eliminating debt in the weak nations, devaluation and inflation, was bound to wreak havoc with the economic basket cases of Southern Europe. The single currency has only survived so long because Germany has been willing to prop it up.

Vegas On The Med - The Euro Casino
by Ian R Thorpe.
2011-01-27
CREATIVE COMMONS: Attribute, non commercial, no derivs.
KEYWORDS:finance, economy, economics, Euro, debt, gambling, political, politics, business, currency, europe, eurozone, mediterranean, vegas, bond, interest, union, germany, france, greece, portugal, ireland, wealth, money

The Debt Burden On Club Med Nations Means The Single Currency Is Finished
Recently John de Roe wrote for The Daily Stirrer that a financial system that runs on debt and thus has inflation built into it makes living prudently, working hard, managing one's budget and saving for the future a folly. When political leaders and bankers use inflation as a way of writing off debt the dissolute, the reckless and the idle are rewarded. How could one get rich in such a system? What business plan would ensure success? Ponzi reviewed schemes have already been done, creative accounting in the style of Enron and World Com have ben exposed. There may still be a way however. Our economic experts believe the best approach is to invent a system for beating the bank at roulette.

As an experiment we set our team of scientists to work on this. After months of experimentation and mathematical modelling of betting patterns they submitted their peer reviewed report; it claimed to have found a foolproof way of creating wealth.

It was then the turn of The Stirrer's economics team. The floated a company, issued a prospectus and found plenty of investors. Once the shares had ben sold and the money banked we sent our boy - reporter off to Vegas to do the business. Nothing was heard from him for months. The Managing Editor was getting frantic when a fax arrived from the gambling capital (and by coincidence the bond trading capital) of the world.. It read, "System working beautifully, please raise more cash from investors.

There are such systems though I am not familiar with the ones used by Roulette players I do know the ones for backing racehorses. So long as bets can be placed tax free they are infallible. The problem is in the event of a losing run stakes must be increased exponentially to recoup losses. The gambler can easily get into the situation where they are betting hundreds of thousand of pounds simply to cover previous losses and make Ł1 profit.

This is now the state of Europe's poorer economies the Mediterranean nations of the Eurozone aka Vegas on the Med. The single currency system is functioning so brilliantly, its vulnerable members are sliding towards bankruptcy as they are forced to gamble ever more recklessly in the bond markets to fund their exploding deficits. The only place they can turn to for emergency funds as bond traders demand higher and higher interest rates is the Bundersbank in Berlin.

(A note here, bonds are sold at a fixed interest rate on face value but traded at discounts or premiums, thus a discounted bond is effectively attracting a higher interest rate in real terms. If you buy a Ł1 million 3.5% bond for Ł950,000 the interest due is still 3.5% of Ł1 million.)

On current showings, Greece, because its bonds bear high interest and are heavily discounted, will be paying nearly 10 per cent of its GDP in interest by 2015. The country is bankrupt. Portugal’s 10-year borrowing costs are estimated at an unsupportable 7 per cent and would be even higher but for support by the European Central Bank. And Spain, partly as a result of its catastrophic experiment with a 'green economy' is having to pay France for electricity to keep what is left of its industry running and looking at 700,000 unsold homes built with borrowed money, 20 per cent unemployment and a 33 per cent deterioration in competitiveness against Germany since the euro was formed.

Yes, the system is working beautifully. No luck or skill required, just a bottomless pit of money.

There are some professional gamblers who do very well for various reasons. Some are excellent statisticians (far better than the statisticians who proclaim themselves 'scientists' as if it proves their infallibility, some study the habits of trainers and some are very smart at placing their money in betting markets, hedging bets to maximise winnings and minimise losses. I always showed an overall profit on my bets on horse racing through involvement, as an owner, in the sport. Trainers know when a horse is set up to win and owners share the information. Having said that, my serious bets were restricted to five or six a year. About half were winners and that kept me in profit. What I made was not enough to live on however. Even though I was a big earner I could not put together the kind of betting bank needed to make a living gambling.

Most who gamble hoping to get rich end up having to bet fortunes merely to recoup losses and show a minimal profit. Success for them is staying in the game because so long as they stay in the game they can continue to delude themselves that luck will change and undreamed of riches will flow their way.

That is a little of the reality of gambling.

The bail-out fund of 750 billion euros put up by the European Union and IMF will not be a big enough betting bank to get the Euro zone's poor nations out of trouble. It may buy time, allowing Athens, Lisbon and Madrid to stay in the game but their financial attrition grinds on. One day the investors will want a return.

Of the six eurozone countries that still have triple-A credit ratings – Austria, Finland, France, Germany, Luxembourg and the Netherlands – only one really matters: Germany. As the EU’s only surviving economic powerhouse (GDP growth was 3.6 per cent in 2010), it has become the lender of last resort for the basket case countries. So far, Berlin has come up with the moolah but 62 per cent of Germans are now strongly opposed to further bail outs for losers in the casinos of Vegas on the Med. Faced with choosing between saving Europe’s olive oil belt and saving her government Chancellor Angela Merkel will turn off the aid tap to please German electors.

Can anything more be done to save the Euro zone and with it the great unification project that was planned to create a single European superstate? There have been calls for the issue of an all-embracing euro bond, giving the basket cases access to credit on terms similar to those enjoyed by more muscular neighbours. Last week Finland’s prime minister, Mari Kiviniemi, asked if this was a good idea responded in the manner of a harassed teacher to a dull witted child: “No, it is a very bad idea”.

What about the European Central Bank? Can it be relied upon to loosen monetary policy and allow rising inflation to ease the pain of debt and structural deficit? Not as long as CEO Jean-Claude Trichet has a hole in his bottom it can't. The name of the ECB chief is unmistakably French, but his economics are very German. Rather than cut the ECB’s interest rate he is more likely to raise it.

No get-out-of-jail cards on the board then. As Mervyn King, the Bank of England’s governor explained this week, eurozone countries that binged on cheap money and self-indulgent fiscal planning must find a way to improve their competitiveness: But because they are part of a monetary union and so do not have their own currency, they can do so only through reductions in wages and living standards. And to invoke the market forces that will bring about such an adjustment, unemployment has to rise very sharply, compounding the impact on living standards.”

What is know but not being said is that the destructive realignment of income to output in the Europe's poor nations has much further to run. Greece has barely scratched the surface of a sprawling and corrupt public sector, where standards of book-keeping shame would shame a crooked accountant. Greece is learning the hard way there comes a point where austerity alone cannot deliver a solvency. The burden of unsustainable debt obligations is rising faster than cuts can be made. The Greeks have performed emergency surgery but the wounds are still hemorrhaging.

For so long as long as Greece, Ireland, Portugal and the others remain locked in a currency that is the Deutsche mark with a hint of garlic their economies cannot recover. A lethal combination of rising unemployment, falling wages and an exodus of talent will force a confrontation with reality. Electors will will rebel against the austerity measures that only appear to be making things worse or creditors will run out of patience and call in their debts. Thus the euro, as we know it, will be finished. The member nations may return to their own currencies or a breakaway group my stick with a Euro 2 system with their economies tied to Germany's. And then where will the Europe project be?

Ein volk, Ein Reich, Ein Banker?

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A report published today, authored by child protection specialist Malcolm Newsam CBE and former senior police officer Gary Ridgway, comes following the reopening of an investigation into the death of 15-year-old Victoria Agoglia, who – after years of abuse and days after she was injected with heroin by a 50-year-old man – died in hospital of an overdose in 2003.

Greta Thunberg Slams Australia for Coal Industry, Expands List of Climate Demands
Little Greta Thunberg, who was elected by nobody apparently now speaks for us all on matters relating to climate change. The Swedish climate change hustler who is making a fortune for her handlers from donations to her campaign, again castigated Australia for continuing to mine and export coal despite her previous complaints, adding a call for an end worldwide to the actibity to her list of climate demands to be delivered at the upcoming World Economic Forum in Davos ...

Macron Digs In Against The General Strike, But Could It Finish Him?
As the French braces itself for the latest wave of protests and strikes across the country, as attitudes harden against President Emmanuel Macron's pension and retirement system reforms. Karel Vereycken, vice-president of France's Solidarity and Progress Party, has given his version what's behind the recent wave of strikes and why Macron's efforts to calm the situation down are backfiring.